Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Every number here is computed from the traded MSTR options chain. The call wall is where dealer hedging accumulates above spot and caps upside, the put wall is its mirror below, and the gamma flip is the level where hedging stops damping moves and starts amplifying them.
| Strike | Calls | Puts | Today's volume | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 137.00 | 986 | 793 | 1,117 | Call |
| 138.00 | 9,626 | 360 | 7,489 | Call |
| 139.00 | 546 | 321 | 1,746 | Call |
| 140.00 | 16,882 | 11,267 | 17,528 | Call |
| 141.00 | 4,044 | 319 | 5,245 | Call |
| 142.00 | 7,903 | 308 | 7,519 | Call |
| 143.00 | 8,032 | 143 | 9,789 | Call |
| 144.00 | 5,367 | 75 | 13,449 | Call |
| 145.00 | 27,259 | 5,437 | 23,816 | Call |
| 146.00 | 517 | 24 | 5,684 | Call |
| 147.00 | 13,693 | 49 | 6,249 | Call |
| 148.00 | 9,627 | 58 | 6,603 | Call |
| Day | Price | Gamma flip | Call wall | Put wall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 96.31 | 89.70 | 100.00 | 95.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | 99.25 | 90.61 | 100.00 | 98.50 |
| 2026-08-10 | 98.00 | 88.52 | 100.00 | 95.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 96.16 | 90.04 | 100.00 | 95.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | 95.07 | 92.12 | 100.00 | 95.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Max pain strike | 133.00 |
| Put/Call ratio · today's volume | 0.69 |
| Put/Call ratio · open interest | 0.79 |
| 0DTE contracts in chain | 220 |
| Total contracts read | 1,194 |
أكبرُ تجمّعٍ لعقود الشراء عند 150.00 (5.04% from price)، ولعقود البيع عند 140.00 (-1.96% from price)، والمسافةُ بينهما 7.14٪، a **wide** range. That does not imply a move is coming, only that the walls are far enough apart not to confine MSTR during the session, so flow leads rather than hedging.
صافي تعرّض الغاما لـMSTR يبلغ 85.44 مليون، وهو حجمٌ محدود. Hedging for a 1% move is about 598,293 shares. In this range hedging stays secondary to the stock's own flow, so the levels below should not be asked to carry more than they can.
and this reading is built on 1,194 contracts in the chain.
Over the last 27 days of tracking (1,635 archived snapshots), MSTR stayed above the gamma flip in 64% of readings، وتنقّلت نقطةُ الانقلاب نفسُها بين 87.5700 و122.43، أي بنطاق 39.81٪، وهو ما يعني أنّ the level moves with the market and does not serve as a fixed reference across days، and net exposure today is below the period average (87.21 مليون).
