Is Strait of Hormuz risk priced into oil and stocks right now?

Strait risk is priced into markets. We read oil tankers, the Brent premium over WTI, energy versus the market, and oil volatility versus equity volatility, each against its last 60 sessions.

What did Brent and WTI crude close at?

Brent 126.55$ and WTI 101.91$ (as of 2026-10-14). Oil volatility is 2.72 times equity volatility (OVX/VIX).

Is the CRB commodity index rising or falling?

Our ETF-based CRB index is 143.47: +9.83% over three months and +14.49% versus its 200-day average (as of 2026-10-20).

Oil and commodities observatory

Oil and the Strait of Hormuz today: is the risk priced into stocks or not?

A Hormuz headline sends oil higher, and you can't tell whether it will keep going or calm down.

Here are the four channels we read the risk from, plus oil closes and the commodity index. Each number shows its source and date.

The short answer

Is Strait of Hormuz risk priced into oil and stocks right now?: Strait risk is priced into markets. We read oil tankers, the Brent premium over WTI, energy versus the market, and oil volatility versus equity volatility, each against its last 60 sessions.
What did Brent and WTI crude close at?: Brent $126.55 and WTI $101.91 (as of 2026-10-14). Oil volatility is 2.72 times equity volatility (OVX/VIX).
Is the CRB commodity index rising or falling?: Our ETF-based CRB index is 143.47: +9.83% over three months and +14.49% versus its 200-day average (as of 2026-10-20).

$126.55Brent crude close
$101.91WTI crude close
2.72Oil volatility versus equity volatility
143.47Commodity index

Strait of Hormuz: four channels that show whether the risk is priced

Strait risk is priced into markets. Each channel is read against its last 60 sessions: a reading in the top fifth means the market is already pricing the risk.

Channel	Change over 20 sessions	Rank within the last 60 sessions
Oil tankers (BWET)	+17.48%	73% of sessions were lower
Brent versus WTI (BNO/USO)	+3.59%	81% of sessions were lower
Energy versus the market (XLE/SPY)	+10.64%	96% of sessions were lower
Oil volatility index versus the volatility index	2.72 Above 2 means fear in oil is twice fear in stocks	Oct 19, 2026

Brent trades $24.64 a barrel above WTI. The gap widens when the market fears a disruption to oil shipped through the strait, because Brent is the price of seaborne crude.

Source: prices of tanker, oil and energy ETFs · Cboe · last reading 20 October 2026.

Commodity index: are raw materials rising or falling?

The commodity price index (CRB Index · CoreCommodity CRB): a basket of 19 commodities. We rebuild it from commodity ETFs using its official weights, covering 71% of its weight. Inflationary push from commodities.

Sector	3 months
Whole basket Close 20 October 2026	+9.83% versus the 200-session average +14.49%
Energy	+17.25%
Agriculture and softs	+6.31%
Industrial metals	+0.69%
Precious metals	−0.75%

Roll cost: is the futures curve eating into oil and gas fund returns?

A front-month fund sells its contract every month and buys the next. If it lags the twelve-month fund, the roll is costing it returns (an upward-sloping curve (Contango) ), and if it leads, the roll is helping (an inverted curve (Backwardation) ).

Commodity	Gap over 3 months	Tag
WTI crude USO / USL	−0.17 percentage points	Little roll effect
Natural gas UNG / UNL	+7.98 percentage points	Roll supports returns

The gap is the front-month fund's return minus the twelve-month fund's return, from their closes. It combines the roll and changes in the curve's shape, so it shows direction, not a return figure.

Index chart and commodity fund ranking

A one-year chart of the commodity index with its 200-session average, each sector's contribution, the commodity fund ranking, and the history of the Hormuz channels and the gamma regime on the oil channel are on member pages.

Unlock every symbol: 5 free trading sessions Just your email · no payment details