Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Bond yields jump right after an auction, stocks drop, and you don't know why.
Here is the result of every note and bond auction, and what sits in the Treasury account and the reverse repo. Each number shows its source and date.
Bid-to-Cover : how many dollars were bid for each dollar offered. Above 2.5 is strong demand. And the auction tail : the gap between the yield the auction cleared at and the market close, in basis points. Positive means the Treasury paid more to sell its debt.
| Tenor | Auction date | Bid-to-cover | Average of the last 8 auctions | Tail (basis points) | Awarded yield | Indirect bidders | Volume | Demand |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 years Reopening | Oct 8, 2026 | 2.54 +0.09 | 2.45 | +1.8 | 5.618% | 70.4% | $22 billion | Strong demand |
| 10 years Reopening | Oct 7, 2026 | 2.77 +0.26 | 2.51 | +2.0 | 5.300% | 77.8% | $39 billion | Strong demand |
| 7 years | Sep 24, 2026 | 2.42 −0.07 | 2.49 | −1.5 | 5.085% | 49.1% | $44 billion | Normal demand |
| 5 years | Sep 23, 2026 | 2.21 −0.12 | 2.33 | +4.3 | 5.033% | 47.0% | $70 billion | Normal demand |
| Two years | Sep 22, 2026 | 2.63 +0.03 | 2.60 | +7.7 | 4.787% | 49.3% | $69 billion | Strong demand |
| 20 years Reopening | Sep 15, 2026 | 2.57 −0.04 | 2.61 | +2.0 | 5.420% | 52.1% | $13 billion | Strong demand |
Verdict on the latest auctions: Strong auctions: 4 of 6 · institutions are locking in yield, which pushes yields lower.
Source: US Treasury (FiscalData) · notes and bonds only · indirect bidders include foreign central banks.
Treasury General Account (TGA) : when it rises, it pulls dollars out of banks. And the reverse repo (RRP) : a window where funds park their overnight surplus, so a decline means dollars returning to markets.
| Indicator | Value | Last reading | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Liquidity | $5,872 billion +7.9 over 4 weeks | Oct 14, 2026 | Federal Reserve |
| Treasury account | $883.4 billion | Oct 14, 2026 | Federal Reserve |
| Reverse repo | $0.3 billion +0.2 versus the previous reading | Oct 14, 2026 | New York Fed |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.15% | Oct 19, 2026 | US Treasury Department |
| Next Treasury auction | 19-year 10-month | Oct 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC | US Treasury Department |
Last 45 days · SPY five-minute bars from the last close before the result time.
| Auction | Result time | Bid-to-cover | SPY after 30 minutes | SPY after one hour | Largest move within the hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29-year 10-month | 2.54 | −0.03% | −0.03% | ±0.13% | |
| 9-year 10-month | 2.77 | +0.11% | +0.10% | ±0.13% | |
| 3 years | 2.62 | +0.01% | +0.03% | ±0.08% | |
| 7 years | 2.42 | −0.18% | −0.33% | ±0.33% | |
| 5 years | 2.21 | +0.11% | +0.19% | ±0.30% | |
| Two years | 2.63 | +0.01% | +0.07% | ±0.10% | |
| 19-year 11-month | 2.57 | −0.02% | +0.04% | ±0.07% | |
| 29-year 11-month | 2.61 | −0.06% | −0.14% | ±0.14% |
Moves are measured from the last five-minute close before the result time · bid-to-cover from the US Treasury · the 10-year yield's move in the same hour is unavailable: the platform has no intraday source for it.
Bid-to-cover for the last eight auctions of each maturity, this week's issuance and what it drains from markets, and the path of the Treasury account and the reverse repo are on member pages.
