Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Real results from a Systematic engine that tracks US options and stock trades using the five Greeks + technical analysis + gamma structure. Forward tracking only: no fabricated numbers and no backfill. Every closed trade counts at its actual price.
The record covers Jun 8, 2026 to Oct 21, 2026 · last tracker reading: 15 hours ago
Read the win rate together with the average winner and average loser: when the average winner is larger than the average loser, a win rate below half is enough for the portfolio to grow.
215 closed trades · from Jun 8, 2026 to Oct 21, 2026
The outer ring is winners vs. losers, the inner ring is the close reason. It follows the market filter in the trades tab and updates with every closed trade.
How it is calculated: Profit Factor = total gains of winning trades ÷ total losses of losing trades. Expectancy = (Win Rate × average winner) + (loss rate × average loser). Max drawdown = the deepest drop from a prior peak on the equity curve itself (allocating 10% per trade), not on the sum of percentages, because summing hides the drawdown completely. All of it comes from 215 closed trades across both markets (US options and stocks), tracked forward, not rebuilt from the past. Full details on the methodology page.
What you see above can be checked: the ticker, contract direction, entry time and current return. What is hidden is the Strike and expiration, the parts that make a trade actionable. No trade is cherry-picked: these are all 13 open trades.
215 closed trades · from Jun 8, 2026 to Oct 21, 2026 · each point is one trade, in order of closing
*Illustrative options portfolio: a $3,000 base and fixed 10% risk per trade, compounded over timecalibrated for options only. Each market has its own curve. Choose "US stocks" above to isolate it, and note its position sizes and risk differ, so it can't be compared on the same base. Not a guaranteed return.
The last 24 closed trades · from Oct 15, 2026 to Oct 21, 2026
What it shows: each recently closed trade is one bar, so you see at a glance whether the gain comes from many small trades or a few big ones.
Example: Three short green bars, then one long red bar? One loss wiped out the gain of three trades.
| Ticker | Type | Market | Result | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | PUT | Options | -6.1% | 2026-10-21 |
| COF | PUT | Options | -6.6% | 2026-10-21 |
| COF | PUT | Options | -7.7% | 2026-10-21 |
| COF | PUT | Options | -2% | 2026-10-21 |
| PM | — | US stocks | -3.7% | 2026-10-21 |
| NFLX | PUT | Options | +45.8% | 2026-10-21 |
| MMM | CALL | Options | +41% | 2026-10-20 |
| BMY | CALL | Options | +48.7% | 2026-10-20 |
| BMY | CALL | Options | +48.7% | 2026-10-20 |
| BMY | CALL | Options | +44.4% | 2026-10-20 |
| APP | PUT | Options | -8.2% | 2026-10-20 |
| HUT | CALL | Options | -21.6% | 2026-10-20 |
| F | CALL | Options | -35.1% | 2026-10-19 |
| BMY | CALL | Options | -21.8% | 2026-10-19 |
| CMG | PUT | Options | +41% | 2026-10-19 |
| EWZ | — | US stocks | -2.7% | 2026-10-19 |
| BAC | PUT | Options | +40.5% | 2026-10-19 |
| BMY | CALL | Options | -7.2% | 2026-10-16 |
| U | CALL | Options | -7.5% | 2026-10-16 |
| GFS | — | US stocks | -1.9% | 2026-10-16 |
| COF | CALL | Options | +41% | 2026-10-16 |
| PLTR | — | US stocks | +3.7% | 2026-10-15 |
| WFC | PUT | Options | -33.5% | 2026-10-15 |
| WULF | PUT | Options | +40% | 2026-10-15 |
| MMM | CALL | Options | +40% | 2026-10-15 |
| U | CALL | Options | -8.3% | 2026-10-15 |
| ADBE | PUT | Options | -28.2% | 2026-10-15 |
| MSFT | — | US stocks | -1% | 2026-10-14 |
| WULF | PUT | Options | +44.6% | 2026-10-14 |
| RTX | PUT | Options | -25.4% | 2026-10-14 |
| META | — | US stocks | +1.9% | 2026-10-14 |
| SOXX | PUT | Options | +42% | 2026-10-14 |
| CORZ | CALL | Options | -20.9% | 2026-10-14 |
| CORZ | CALL | Options | -17.2% | 2026-10-14 |
| CORZ | CALL | Options | -9% | 2026-10-14 |
| CORZ | CALL | Options | -5.2% | 2026-10-14 |
| CORZ | CALL | Options | -12.7% | 2026-10-14 |
| PG | — | US stocks | +2.3% | 2026-10-14 |
| MS | CALL | Options | -57.7% | 2026-10-14 |
| CEG | CALL | Options | -22.8% | 2026-10-13 |
| C | PUT | Options | -7.6% | 2026-10-12 |
| NOW | CALL | Options | +47.1% | 2026-10-12 |
| CMG | PUT | Options | -1.6% | 2026-10-09 |
| CMG | PUT | Options | -1.1% | 2026-10-09 |
| CMG | PUT | Options | -2.6% | 2026-10-09 |
| CMG | PUT | Options | -2.1% | 2026-10-09 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -7.5% | 2026-10-09 |
| XLI | PUT | Options | -10.9% | 2026-10-09 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -8.6% | 2026-10-09 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -9% | 2026-10-09 |
| MRK | CALL | Options | +43.1% | 2026-10-09 |
| SNAP | — | US stocks | +8.7% | 2026-10-09 |
| RBLX | CALL | Options | +43.2% | 2026-10-09 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -4.8% | 2026-10-08 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -4% | 2026-10-08 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -5.2% | 2026-10-08 |
| NNE | CALL | Options | -35.9% | 2026-10-08 |
| CRWV | CALL | Options | -35.5% | 2026-10-08 |
| RIOT | CALL | Options | -16.3% | 2026-10-08 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -11.1% | 2026-10-08 |
| RIOT | CALL | Options | -14% | 2026-10-08 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -10.1% | 2026-10-08 |
| RIOT | CALL | Options | -16.3% | 2026-10-08 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -13.5% | 2026-10-08 |
| RIOT | CALL | Options | -10.9% | 2026-10-08 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -13.2% | 2026-10-08 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -17.3% | 2026-10-08 |
| OKLO | CALL | Options | -37.8% | 2026-10-08 |
| XLE | PUT | Options | -17.5% | 2026-10-08 |
| HON | CALL | Options | -12.3% | 2026-10-08 |
| XLRE | CALL | Options | -42.1% | 2026-10-08 |
| PLTR | — | US stocks | +5.7% | 2026-10-08 |
| RDW | CALL | Options | +0% | 2026-10-07 |
| SLB | CALL | Options | -19.5% | 2026-10-07 |
| RDW | CALL | Options | +1.7% | 2026-10-07 |
| SLB | CALL | Options | -19.5% | 2026-10-07 |
| RDW | CALL | Options | +4.3% | 2026-10-07 |
| SLB | CALL | Options | -20.9% | 2026-10-07 |
| SLB | CALL | Options | -15.3% | 2026-10-07 |
| HON | CALL | Options | -35.8% | 2026-10-07 |
| SLB | CALL | Options | -15.7% | 2026-10-07 |
| SLB | CALL | Options | -25.2% | 2026-10-07 |
| NNE | CALL | Options | -23.6% | 2026-10-07 |
| SLB | CALL | Options | -12.2% | 2026-10-07 |
| ABBV | — | US stocks | +3% | 2026-10-07 |
| KMI | CALL | Options | +40.8% | 2026-10-06 |
| CRWD | CALL | Options | +41.4% | 2026-10-06 |
| XLI | PUT | Options | -7.9% | 2026-10-05 |
| CEG | PUT | Options | -16.8% | 2026-10-05 |
| APLD | CALL | Options | -2.2% | 2026-10-05 |
| CEG | PUT | Options | -13.7% | 2026-10-05 |
| APLD | CALL | Options | +0% | 2026-10-05 |
| ORCL | CALL | Options | +40.5% | 2026-10-05 |
| EWZ | CALL | Options | +170.4% | 2026-10-05 |
| MSFT | — | US stocks | +4.1% | 2026-10-05 |
| NKE | PUT | Options | +69.5% | 2026-10-02 |
| OKTA | — | US stocks | +2.8% | 2026-10-02 |
| XLV | PUT | Options | +42.1% | 2026-10-02 |
| U | CALL | Options | +40.3% | 2026-10-01 |
| NFLX | PUT | Options | +41.1% | 2026-10-01 |
| NNE | CALL | Options | -17.3% | 2026-10-01 |
| WFC | PUT | Options | +48.6% | 2026-10-01 |
| C | PUT | Options | +42.3% | 2026-10-01 |
| JNJ | — | US stocks | -2.8% | 2026-10-01 |
| PG | CALL | Options | -20.8% | 2026-09-30 |
| PYPL | CALL | Options | -35.7% | 2026-09-30 |
| AMD | — | US stocks | -3.1% | 2026-09-30 |
| KRE | PUT | Options | +43.2% | 2026-09-29 |
| UNG | — | US stocks | -5% | 2026-09-29 |
| XLB | PUT | Options | +64.8% | 2026-09-28 |
| XLV | PUT | Options | -1.3% | 2026-09-28 |
| XLV | PUT | Options | -1.3% | 2026-09-28 |
| XLV | PUT | Options | +0% | 2026-09-28 |
| META | — | US stocks | -2.8% | 2026-09-28 |
| AVGO | PUT | Options | -37.1% | 2026-09-25 |
| SPCX | CALL | Options | +44.9% | 2026-09-25 |
| DVN | CALL | Options | -38.8% | 2026-09-25 |
| EWZ | CALL | Options | +45.8% | 2026-09-25 |
| T | CALL | Options | +40.5% | 2026-09-25 |
| XLE | CALL | Options | +48.8% | 2026-09-25 |
| Category | Trades | Win Rate | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Options | 184 | 37% | +3.7% |
| Stocks | 31 | 35.5% | -0.7% |
| Single contract | 184 | 37% | +3.7% |
| Direct asset (no contracts) | 31 | 35.5% | -0.7% |
| Category | Trades | Win Rate | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-dated · over 45 days | 139 | 36% | +5.7% |
| Extended · 22–45 days | 44 | 38.6% | -3.2% |
| Systematic options scanner · structural levels | 122 | 36.1% | +6.1% |
| Systematic options scanner | 44 | 25% | -11.2% |
| Systematic options scanner · structural levels | 17 | 70.6% | +23% |
| Not set | 1 | — | Sample below threshold, no rate |
| Position at entry | Trades | Win Rate | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above the 200-day average | 119 | 43.7% | +4.3% |
| Below the 50-day average | 117 | 27.4% | -0.2% |
| Above the 50-day average | 98 | 48% | +6.9% |
| Below the 200-day average | 95 | 27.4% | +1% |
⚠ Correlation, not causation: the sample is limited and the market period affects it. It is a pattern to track, not a rule to follow.
Why publish numbers that don't sell? Because a record that shows no losses is not a record. Every closed trade appears below as it happened (with its entry and exit prices and the reasons for both). None is deleted after its result, and no call is rewritten after the fact.
A low rate is not a flaw by itself: a system that wins a third of its trades with a high Risk/Reward beats one that wins two thirds with a tiny one. Read the rate with the methodology, not alone, and read what we refused to build alongside them. What we hold back from describes the platform as much as what we build.
The numbers above combine all markets. To check a single ticker, its trade count, Win Rate and its own curve, open its page. A page is published only for tickers with 3 or more closed trades, because a Win Rate from one or two trades means nothing statistically.
Finviro's US options trade signals do not rely on guesswork but on institutional-grade quantitative measurement. Each setup starts with flow analysis and gamma structure · a map of where dealers are positioned and where the flip levels sit. Candidates are then filtered through trading strategies built on the five Greeks (Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, Rho) to gauge contract quality and risk before entry.
The system classifies each trade with a clear verdict and sets the target and stop before entry, not after: a +40% target and −35% stop on the contract premium, fixed in the code before any trade opens and never adjusted to dress up a result. When either is hit, the trade closes automatically and its actual result is logged above. Learn the terms in the Greeks library and the financial glossary, or go deeper on the methodology at Finviro Academy.
The record above shows closed results. Open trade ideas, with Greeks, targets and live analysis, are available to members.
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