Is US liquidity rising or falling right now?

Fed net liquidity is $5,872bn, up $7.9bn over four weeks (data as of 2026-10-14). Rising liquidity usually supports asset prices.

Do stocks pay more than bonds right now?

The equity risk premium is −1.30 percentage points: Bonds pay more than stocks (10-year yield above the earnings yield). We compute it as the S&P 500 earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield (5.09%).

The US economy today

US liquidity, oil and the Strait of Hormuz today: do they support the market or weigh on it?

Q: Is Strait of Hormuz risk priced into oil right now?

Strait risk is priced into markets. We read four channels against their last 60 sessions: oil tankers, the Brent premium over WTI, energy versus the market, and oil volatility versus equity volatility.

You read Fed and oil news from scattered sources and can't tell which one is moving the market today.

Here are the numbers on one page. Each one shows its source and the date of its last reading.

The short answer

Is US liquidity rising or falling right now?: Fed net liquidity is $5,872bn, up $7.9bn over four weeks (data as of 2026-10-14). Rising liquidity usually supports asset prices.
Is Strait of Hormuz risk priced into oil right now?: Strait risk is priced into markets. We read four channels against their last 60 sessions: oil tankers, the Brent premium over WTI, energy versus the market, and oil volatility versus equity volatility.
Do stocks pay more than bonds right now?: The equity risk premium is −1.30 percentage points: Bonds pay more than stocks (10-year yield above the earnings yield). We compute it as the S&P 500 earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield (5.09%).

Liquidity, rates and bonds

Indicator	Value	Last reading	Source
Fed net liquidity	$5,872 billion +7.9 over 4 weeks	Oct 14, 2026	Federal Reserve
Overnight financing rate (SOFR)	3.89%	Oct 15, 2026	New York Fed
10-year Treasury yield	5.09%	Oct 16, 2026	US Treasury Department
Equity risk premium	−1.30 percentage points Bonds pay more than stocks (10-year yield above the earnings yield)	Oct 16, 2026	S&P 500 earnings and the 10-year yield
Next Treasury auction	6-week	Oct 20, 2026 · 15:30 UTC	US Treasury Department

Financial conditions: Financial conditions are mixed

Oil, the Strait of Hormuz and commodities

Strait risk is priced into markets. Four channels against their last 60 sessions: oil tankers, the Brent premium over WTI, energy versus the market, and oil volatility versus equity volatility.

Indicator	Value	Last reading	Source
Brent crude close	$126.55	Oct 14, 2026	US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
WTI crude close	$101.91	Oct 14, 2026	US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Oil volatility versus equity volatility (OVX/VIX)	2.98 above 2 means oil fear is twice equity fear	Oct 15, 2026	Cboe Options Exchange
Commodity index (CRB)	146.54 Month +0.21%	Oct 16, 2026	Commodity ETFs with CRB weights

History, components and charts

Liquidity components week by week, the premium's history, the four Hormuz channels and commodity sectors are on the member pages.

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