Reading the market regime before prices move

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Pre-market
FINVIRO · EARNINGS IV CRUSH

Why does your option lose after earnings even when you got the direction right?

Before an earnings report, option prices rise because the market pays for an expected move. After the report the waiting is over, so implied volatility drops suddenly and the contract loses part of its value. That is the volatility crush . Pick a stock reporting soon and the tool calculates how far the stock must move so your contract doesn't lose, and compares it with the move the market is pricing.

Your contract

Result

The move the market is pricing—
Implied volatility now → after the report—
Your contract's value the morning after if the stock doesn't move—
The move needed so you don't lose—

Contract value after the report by stock move

Stock moveStock priceContract valueYour profit or loss

المصدر: سلسلةُ عقود الخيارات بسعر التنفيذ الأقرب إلى سعر السهم لأوّل استحقاقٍ بعد الإعلان والشموعُ اليوميّة، يحسبها محرّكُ Finviro كلَّ عشرين دقيقةً أثناء الجلسة. آخرُ تحديث: . الحسابُ نموذجُ بلاك-شولز في متصفّحك، والنتيجةُ تقديرٌ لا وعد.

How do we calculate it?

  1. We take the straddle At the money (ATM · At The Money) for the first expiry that includes the report, which gives us the expected move in dollars and percent.
  2. We price your contract today at the current implied volatility, then price it the morning after the report at the expected volatility and with one day less to expiry.
  3. We look for the stock price at which the contract's value returns to what you paid: that is the move needed.

Follow upcoming reports and what the market priced for each in this week's earnings and the priced-in move, and try another contract in the breakeven calculator.