Reading the market regime before prices move
Before an earnings report, option prices rise because the market pays for an expected move. After the report the waiting is over, so implied volatility drops suddenly and the contract loses part of its value. That is the volatility crush . Pick a stock reporting soon and the tool calculates how far the stock must move so your contract doesn't lose, and compares it with the move the market is pricing.
Your contract needs a bigger move than the market is pricing. In other words, the report has to surprise the market for you not to lose. The move needed is smaller than the market is pricing. But the price may not move at all, and then you lose what the third box shows. No move within a reasonable range brings the contract back to what you paid after the crush. Review the strike or the premium.
| Stock move | Stock price | Contract value | Your profit or loss |
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المصدر: سلسلةُ عقود الخيارات بسعر التنفيذ الأقرب إلى سعر السهم لأوّل استحقاقٍ بعد الإعلان والشموعُ اليوميّة، يحسبها محرّكُ Finviro كلَّ عشرين دقيقةً أثناء الجلسة. آخرُ تحديث: . الحسابُ نموذجُ بلاك-شولز في متصفّحك، والنتيجةُ تقديرٌ لا وعد.
Follow upcoming reports and what the market priced for each in this week's earnings and the priced-in move, and try another contract in the breakeven calculator.