Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Every day you read about a "strong level the price will bounce off." Nobody tells you how often it actually bounced. We save the options levels for every stock every 5 minutes since Jul 20, 2026. Then we come back after the close and count what happened. This page shows the result as it is, even when it doesn't favor us.
Last updated: Oct 13, 2026 · recalculated after every trading session
Bottom line: the wall held about as often as a random line at the same distance would have (a gap of 0.4 percentage points). So distance explains the holding, not the wall itself.
Call Wall (Call Wall) A price above the stock where open call contracts cluster. And the Put Wall A price below the stock where put contracts cluster. Price is said to have a hard time getting past them. We wanted to know: is that true in our data?
A wall less than 1% from price held in only 63.6% of cases. A random line at the same distance would have held in 62.5%. The farther the line, the higher the rate, wall or not.
| Wall distance from price | Number of cases | Wall held | Random line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1% | 5,240 | 63.6% | 62.5% |
| 1–2% | 3,634 | 81.0% | 80.8% |
| 2–3% | 2,846 | 89.5% | 89.1% |
| 3–5% | 3,609 | 94.4% | 94.1% |
| 5–10% | 3,093 | 97.4% | 97.4% |
| Farther than 10% | 1,174 | 99.5% | 99.5% |
Case: one stock on one trading day, each wall counted separately. Distance from the close at the last snapshot.
A second question: we take both walls at the session open and follow the price until the close. Across 10,245 stock-sessions, price broke through the Call Wall in 19.3% and broke below the Put Wall in 21.1%. In 51.3% of sessions, price did not come near either wall.
Using the same test: a random line at the Call Wall's distance would have been broken in 19.8% (the wall: 19.4%). At the Put Wall's distance, in 22.0% (the wall: 21.8%).
The Put Wall break rate here includes sessions where price broke through both walls, so it is slightly higher than the previous number.
The common view: when price is above the zero-gamma level (Gamma Flip) , market makers calm the move, so it gets smaller. In our archive, the average next-day range (high to low) was 3.1% above it and 2.6% below it. But this comparison mixes calm stocks with volatile ones.
So we compared each stock with itself: its days above the Gamma Flip against its days below it, across 162 stocks. The stock was calmer in positive gamma in only 49.4% of them, and the median difference was 0.00 percentage points. So there is no real difference in the next day's range: the move is neither calmer nor wider.
The study measures the full next-day range, not price moves inside the session minute by minute. That's why we don't show the gamma state as a forecast of move size. We show it as a description of which way market makers hedge.
Found an error in a number? Tell us, and we fix it publicly.
