Reading the market regime before prices move

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XRP/USDT · SPOT

XRP (XRP) analysis: trend, liquidity and two scenarios

$1.3133 −4.3% in 24h

A report that gathers what you need before you decide: trend, liquidity, levels and two scenarios with their conditions. The analysis uses closed candles, and the price above is live.

Last scan

The reading in one line

Overall trend (4h)

Bearish

Price vs EMA-20 and EMA-50

Daily bias

Negative 0/7

Above EMA-20 Above EMA-50 Above EMA-200 RSI above 50 Positive MACD histogram DMI+ above DMI− and ADX ≥ 20 Outperforming Bitcoin for 30 days

Liquidity (4h)

0.71×

Aggressive buying 62.4%

Candlestick pattern (4h)

Bullish Engulfing

At support

Strength vs Bitcoin

−10.9 points

30-day return difference · and 7 days −4.4

Agreement score (4h)

10/100

A ranking of candidates, not a success rate

TimeframeConfluenceTrendRSIRetracementAccumulationBreakoutEarly moveLiquidity sweep
Hour 5 Bearish 32.9 — — — 15 —
4 hours 10 Bearish 34.9 — — — 30 —
Daily 6 Sideways 38.2 — — — 15 Below a low, then back
XRP vs Bitcoin · 90 days of 100

The gap between the two lines is the relative strength · daily closes

Why this agreement score? What each factor contributed (4h)

Blue is what was met and gray is what remains of the factor's weight · the score is a ranking, not a success rate

Technical indicators on three timeframes

Indicator center: choose what you want to see
IndicatorHour4 hoursDaily
RSI (14) 32.934.938.2
MACD histogram −0.0011−0.0031−0.0209
Stochastic %K / %D 5.1 / 12.927.0 / 19.98.4 / 13.5
ADX / DMI+ / DMI− 24.6 / 12.2 / 24.244.2 / 8.2 / 30.727.8 / 19.7 / 23.7
CCI (20) −73.3−156.5−128.0
MFI (14) 15.142.030.1
ROC (12) −2.02%−0.79%−10.31%
ATR (14) $0.01194 · 0.90%$0.02388 · 1.79%$0.06884 · 5.17%
EMA-20 / 50 / 200 $1.341 / $1.3563 / $1.4031$1.3673 / $1.398 / $1.4236$1.4217 / $1.3933 / $1.3874
DMA-50 / 200 $1.3583 / $1.3956$1.3964 / $1.4419$1.4237 / $1.2805
Bollinger (20, 2) $1.3065 – $1.3832$1.3203 – $1.4239$1.323 – $1.5901
SuperTrend (10, 3) Falling · $1.3636Falling · $1.4013Rising · $1.3033
Nearest support / resistance $1.3191 / $1.3369$1.315 / $1.3826$1.2934 / $1.3618

All values are on the last closed candle · DMA is a simple average and EMA is exponential · the same calculation the scanner uses to rank coins.

Chart: 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and daily

Support, resistance and the SuperTrend line from the 4h timeframe are drawn on the candles. Turn on RSI, MACD, VWAP, Bollinger and ATR and the moving averages from the toolbar.

XRPUSDT —
Levels drawn on XRPUSDT
LevelRoleDescription
No levels drawn yet.

Fundamentals and market data

Market cap
$82.84B
Rank
#5
24h volume (all exchanges)
$2.28B
24h volume for the USDT spot pair
$195.04M
Circulating supply
63.13B
Max supply
100B
Fully diluted value FDV
$131.21B
Correlation with Bitcoin (90 days)
0.89
7-day performance
−7.1%
30-day performance
−6.8%

Source: aggregated coin market-cap data · correlation from daily returns of the USDT pair.

Market flow and liquidity

Aggressive buying (last 6 candles · 4h)

59.1%

No side is winning

Flow score (4h)

38/100

50 neutral · half is aggressive buying, a quarter is Relative Volume (RVOL), and a quarter is the EMA-20 bias

Relative Volume (RVOL)

0.71×

vs 20-candle average

Bid-ask Spread

0.76 basis points (Basis Point)

Tighter means cheaper execution

Depth within ±1%

$1.92M / $1.3M

Bid / ask · bid bias 59.7%

Spot order book liquidity map (±0.83% from price)

  1. $1.3237
  2. $1.3228
  3. $1.3219
  4. $1.321
  5. $1.3201
  6. $1.3192
  7. $1.3183
  8. $1.3174
  9. $1.3165
  10. $1.3156
  11. $1.3147
  12. $1.3138
  13. $1.3128
  14. $1.3119
  15. $1.311
  16. $1.3101
  17. $1.3092
  18. $1.3083
  19. $1.3074
  20. $1.3065
  21. $1.3056
  22. $1.3047
  23. $1.3038
  24. $1.3029

Bid bars (buyers) in blue and ask bars (sellers) in orange · the top hundred orders on each side at scan time. Note: this reads a Spot order book. It is not a futures liquidation map.

Monthly performance

Is the current move part of a continuing trend, or did it come after a long stretch of weakness? Each month runs from the first day to the last close (the current month so far).

Return for each calendar month (UTC)
Numbers in a list
  1. Oct 2025 −12%
  2. Nov 2025 −14%
  3. Dec 2025 −15%
  4. Jan 2026 −11%
  5. Feb 2026 −16%
  6. Mar 2026 −2.5%
  7. Apr 2026 +2.0%
  8. May 2026 −2.6%
  9. Jun 2026 −22%
  10. Jul 2026 +2.1%
  11. Aug 2026 +30%
  12. Sep 2026 +8.0%
  13. Oct 2026 −11%

Positive and negative scenario (4h)

Instead of the word 'buy': two conditions. If the first is met, this is the path. If the second is met, that one. The invalidation level tells you when the idea is wrong.

Positives

Key level (resistance)
$1.3826
Confirmation: close above
$1.3886
Possible targets
$1.4102 · $1.43
Scenario invalidated below
$1.3151

Negatives

Key level (support)
$1.3151
Confirmation: close below
$1.3091
Possible targets
$1.2792 · $1.2434
Scenario invalidated above
$1.3826

Positives

  • No standout positive factor right now.

Risks

  • Daily bias is negative
  • SuperTrend falling

📝 Short summary

XRP on the 4-hour timeframe leans toward the bearish scenario. The bullish case is confirmed by a close above $1.3886, with a first possible target at $1.4102, and it is invalidated below $1.3151. The bearish case is confirmed by a close below $1.3091, with a first possible target at $1.2792.

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The report shows the data and does not decide for you. All content is educational and is not an investment recommendation. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and you may lose your capital. Back to market state · High agreement