Reading the market regime before prices move

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XLV signal performance

4 closed trades · Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026 · Options · Every closed trade is published here: winners and losers together, no cherry-picking.

An illustrative portfolio that started with $3,000 and risked 10% per trade on XLV alone would now be $3,118.18 (+3.9%)
Win Rate25%1 winners · 2 losers
Average winner+42.1%
Average loser-1.3%
Best trade+42.1%
Worst trade-1.3%
Why trades closed · Exit Reason 1 Target Hit 3 Structural Invalidation More than half of the closes came from Structural Invalidation: the reason for entry broke down, so we exited, not because the target was reached. The rate above measures the realized return at exit, not how often a trade reached its target.

Portfolio curve: XLV only

Fixed risk of 10% per trade, compounded over time, using the same method as the public record so the results stay comparable. Illustrative, not a promise of return.

All closed XLV trades

DateSignalTypeResult
2026-10-02 XLV PUT $175 put +42.1%
2026-09-28 XLV PUT $175 put -1.3%
2026-09-28 XLV PUT $175 put +0%
2026-09-28 XLV PUT $175 put -1.3%