Reading the market regime before prices move

Skip to content
Last close 00:43 UTC
QQQ 743.57 -0.34%
IWM 276.71 -0.43%
RSP 213.30 +0.06%
VIX 15.28 +0.46%
SVIX 30.11 +0.14%
VXX 16.68 -0.06%
SMH 588.12 -0.49%
SOXX 543.90 -0.18%
XLF 54.82 -0.42%
XLE 67.17 +1.76%
GLD 381.67 -0.13%
Brent 125.44 -0.06%
WTI 96.24 +0.11%
Dollar index 121.60 +0.13%
US2Y 4.79% −1 basis point
US5Y 5.00% −2 basis points
US10Y 5.21% −3 basis points
US20Y 5.60% −5 basis points
US30Y 5.56% −4 basis points
Bitcoin 83,220.02 +0.06%
After hours

Flow and institutions

Divergence

Divergence

Price rises while liquidity leaves (or the reverse), a warning of a misleading move or a coming reversal. Finviro's term: “Divergence”.

What divergence is

Divergence (Divergence) catches two signals that should agree and don't: price makes a new high while momentum, volume or flow fails to reach its earlier peak, or price makes a new low while the signal improves. A divergence says the latest move has lost its support.

Why it is one of the most honest early warnings

A healthy trend advances on every front: price, momentum, participation and money. When price advances alone, the fuel is probably running out. Historically, major tops rarely arrived without a divergence weeks before. But it is an exhaustion warning, not a reversal date: the bleeding can last a long time before the fall.

Its practical types

Price/momentum (the best known, with RSI), price/volume (a high on faint volume), price/flow (a rise met by net premium selling), and index/breadth (an index high with narrower participation). The last carries the most weight in reading the whole market.

Hypothetical example

An index makes its third high in two months. The second came with a relative strength of 74 and the third with 63, weaker breadth and negative premium flow. Three signals pulled back together. This is not a sell order, just a clear reason to tighten risk management.

Common mistake

Acting on the first small divergence: in strong trends, divergences build and cancel one after another. Its meaning grows with more confirming signals and with structural levels behind it, not with one eager eye.

Why it warns but doesn't time

Price can keep going in its direction for weeks after a divergence shows up. It says the fuel is running out, not that the reversal has begun. That is why it is used to tighten stops and cut size, and not as a trigger for a counter-trend position without price confirmation after it.

Where to see it on the platform

The quantitative analysis tools show momentum and volume next to price, the breadth bar reveals participation divergence, and the flow page reveals money divergence.

The technical chart shows indicators below price on a linked axis, so you see the divergence against its candle.

Questions about Divergence

What does divergence mean?
Price rises while liquidity leaves (or the reverse), a warning of a misleading move or a coming reversal. Finviro's term: “Divergence”.
How does Divergence appear on the trading platform?
It appears as "Divergence", which is what you see in the options chain or on the order screen.