Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Every number here is computed from the traded SBUX options chain. The call wall is where dealer hedging accumulates above spot and caps upside, the put wall is its mirror below, and the gamma flip is the level where hedging stops damping moves and starts amplifying them.
| Strike | Calls | Puts | Today's volume | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99.00 | 30 | 405 | 60 | Put |
| 100.00 | 2,637 | 9,259 | 1,834 | Put |
| 101.00 | 16 | 430 | 209 | Put |
| 102.00 | 26 | 345 | 78 | Put |
| 103.00 | 17 | 284 | 103 | Put |
| 104.00 | 29 | 345 | 441 | Put |
| 105.00 | 8,082 | 6,729 | 1,839 | Call |
| 106.00 | 629 | 1,154 | 737 | Put |
| 107.00 | 793 | 667 | 995 | Call |
| 108.00 | 304 | 712 | 520 | Put |
| 109.00 | 440 | 299 | 539 | Call |
| 110.00 | 12,164 | 1,993 | 1,248 | Call |
| Day | Price | Gamma flip | Call wall | Put wall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 104.45 | 102.67 | 110.00 | 100.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 106.50 | 103.23 | 110.00 | 105.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | 108.21 | 104.08 | 110.00 | 105.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Max pain strike | 105.00 |
| Put/Call ratio · today's volume | 1.20 |
| Put/Call ratio · open interest | 1.09 |
| 0DTE gamma flip | 104.10 |
| 0DTE contracts in chain | 84 |
| Total contracts read | 466 |
Price 104.47 is above the gamma flip 102.46 by 1.96%. Positioning is positive: as price rises dealers sell hedges, and as it falls they buy — so their hedging acts as a brake pulling price toward the middle. This explains sessions that look quiet despite news that would justify a wider move. Price is pinned to the call wall at 105.00: breaking above it forces buy-side hedging that accelerates the move up, while rejection from it is the more frequent outcome.
The largest call cluster sits at 105.00 (0.51% from price) and the largest put cluster at 100.00 (-4.28% from price). They are 5.00% apart — a normal range: SBUX tends to stay inside it while positioning holds, because hedging at each wall resists a break through it.
صافي تعرّض الغاما لـSBUX يبلغ 5.7 مليون، وهو حجمٌ محدود. Hedging for a 1% move is about 54,530 shares. In this range hedging stays secondary to the stock's own flow, so the levels below should not be asked to carry more than they can.
and this reading is built on 466 contracts in the chain.
Over the last 27 days of tracking (293 archived snapshots), SBUX stayed above the gamma flip in 95% of readings، وتنقّلت نقطةُ الانقلاب نفسُها بين 102.19 و106.14، أي بنطاق 3.87٪، وهو ما يعني أنّ the level moves with the market and does not serve as a fixed reference across days، and net exposure today is below the period average (11.3 مليون).
