Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Every number here is computed from the traded TGT options chain. The call wall is where dealer hedging accumulates above spot and caps upside, the put wall is its mirror below, and the gamma flip is the level where hedging stops damping moves and starts amplifying them.
| Strike | Calls | Puts | Today's volume | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150.00 | 4,881 | 3,553 | 494 | Call |
| 152.50 | 51 | 467 | 105 | Put |
| 155.00 | 4,547 | 2,861 | 266 | Call |
| 157.50 | 158 | 1,069 | 567 | Put |
| 160.00 | 3,945 | 5,873 | 700 | Put |
| 162.50 | 788 | 813 | 1,254 | Put |
| 165.00 | 6,278 | 2,893 | 1,188 | Call |
| 167.50 | 2,816 | 500 | 1,023 | Call |
| 170.00 | 6,410 | 886 | 1,086 | Call |
| 172.50 | 704 | 82 | 613 | Call |
| 175.00 | 4,662 | 253 | 128 | Call |
| 177.50 | 2,391 | 55 | 76 | Call |
| Day | Price | Gamma flip | Call wall | Put wall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 153.16 | 130.95 | 155.00 | 140.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 152.17 | 134.13 | 155.00 | 140.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | 153.51 | 144.24 | 155.00 | 152.50 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Max pain strike | 155.00 |
| Put/Call ratio · today's volume | 0.75 |
| Put/Call ratio · open interest | 1.10 |
| 0DTE gamma flip | 162.41 |
| 0DTE contracts in chain | 104 |
| Total contracts read | 508 |
السعرُ 164.44 يعلو نقطةَ الانقلاب 147.53 بفارق 11.46٪، مسافةٌ مريحة. Positioning is clearly positive: dealer hedging buys dips and sells rallies, so price tends to grind within a range rather than jump. Flipping this state يحتاج هبوطاً يتجاوز 11.5٪، أي أنّه ليس سيناريو الجلسة الأقرب. Price is pinned to the call wall at 165.00: breaking above it forces buy-side hedging that accelerates the move up, while rejection from it is the more frequent outcome.
The largest call cluster sits at 165.00 (0.34% from price) and the largest put cluster at 160.00 (-2.70% from price). They are 3.13% apart — a normal range: TGT tends to stay inside it while positioning holds, because hedging at each wall resists a break through it.
صافي تعرّض الغاما لـTGT يبلغ 17.92 مليون، وهو حجمٌ محدود. Hedging for a 1% move is about 108,950 shares. In this range hedging stays secondary to the stock's own flow, so the levels below should not be asked to carry more than they can.
and this reading is built on 508 contracts in the chain.
Over the last 27 days of tracking (293 archived snapshots), TGT stayed above the gamma flip in 100% of readings، وتنقّلت نقطةُ الانقلاب نفسُها بين 130.40 و162.38، أي بنطاق 24.52٪، وهو ما يعني أنّ the level moves with the market and does not serve as a fixed reference across days، and net exposure today is above the period average (16.48 مليون).
