Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Every number here is computed from the traded SPCX options chain. The call wall is where dealer hedging accumulates above spot and caps upside, the put wall is its mirror below, and the gamma flip is the level where hedging stops damping moves and starts amplifying them.
| Strike | Calls | Puts | Today's volume | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 141.00 | 2,503 | 4,304 | 3,503 | Put |
| 142.00 | 2,515 | 11,357 | 3,482 | Put |
| 143.00 | 3,404 | 3,847 | 2,691 | Put |
| 144.00 | 2,518 | 2,661 | 3,204 | Put |
| 145.00 | 37,169 | 29,920 | 18,820 | Call |
| 146.00 | 3,657 | 1,465 | 4,701 | Call |
| 147.00 | 1,061 | 1,043 | 4,685 | Call |
| 148.00 | 2,002 | 3,952 | 9,998 | Put |
| 149.00 | 2,102 | 1,216 | 8,494 | Call |
| 150.00 | 72,837 | 58,722 | 41,593 | Call |
| 152.50 | 7,312 | 739 | 10,161 | Call |
| 155.00 | 28,102 | 4,742 | 22,693 | Call |
| Day | Price | Gamma flip | Call wall | Put wall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 135.84 | 127.76 | 150.00 | 125.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 132.41 | 129.20 | 135.00 | 125.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | 149.55 | 131.80 | 150.00 | 135.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Max pain strike | 145.00 |
| Put/Call ratio · today's volume | 0.95 |
| Put/Call ratio · open interest | 1.11 |
| 0DTE gamma flip | 147.67 |
| 0DTE contracts in chain | 200 |
| Total contracts read | 1,094 |
Price 147.95 is above the gamma flip 144.98 by 2.05%. Positioning is positive: as price rises dealers sell hedges, and as it falls they buy — so their hedging acts as a brake pulling price toward the middle. This explains sessions that look quiet despite news that would justify a wider move. Price is inside the range between 140.00 and 150.00, closer to Call wall of the two.
أكبرُ تجمّعٍ لعقود الشراء عند 150.00 (1.39% from price)، ولعقود البيع عند 140.00 (-5.37% from price)، والمسافةُ بينهما 7.14٪، a **wide** range. That does not imply a move is coming, only that the walls are far enough apart not to confine SPCX during the session, so flow leads rather than hedging.
صافي تعرّض الغاما لـSPCX يبلغ 26.5 مليون، وهو حجمٌ محدود. Hedging for a 1% move is about 179,110 shares. In this range hedging stays secondary to the stock's own flow, so the levels below should not be asked to carry more than they can.
and this reading is built on 1,094 contracts in the chain.
Over the last 27 days of tracking (298 archived snapshots), SPCX stayed above the gamma flip in 82% of readings، وتنقّلت نقطةُ الانقلاب نفسُها بين 127.06 و144.98، أي بنطاق 14.10٪، وهو ما يعني أنّ the level moves with the market and does not serve as a fixed reference across days، and net exposure today is below the period average (51.78 مليون).
