Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Every number here is computed from the traded NDX options chain. The call wall is where dealer hedging accumulates above spot and caps upside, the put wall is its mirror below, and the gamma flip is the level where hedging stops damping moves and starts amplifying them.
| Strike | Calls | Puts | Today's volume | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29,150.00 | 30 | 53 | 55 | Put |
| 29,175.00 | 18 | 54 | 12 | Put |
| 29,200.00 | 92 | 137 | 140 | Put |
| 29,250.00 | 22 | 82 | 26 | Put |
| 29,300.00 | 234 | 56 | 266 | Call |
| 29,400.00 | 102 | 87 | 156 | Call |
| 29,500.00 | 63 | 47 | 422 | Call |
| 29,550.00 | 45 | 14 | 103 | Call |
| 29,600.00 | 91 | 14 | 266 | Call |
| 29,650.00 | 51 | 30 | 161 | Call |
| 29,700.00 | 90 | 13 | 390 | Call |
| 29,725.00 | 242 | 1 | 124 | Call |
| Day | Price | Gamma flip | Call wall | Put wall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 29,624.29 | 29,538.69 | 29,700.00 | 29,200.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 29,427.99 | 29,530.74 | 29,700.00 | 29,200.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | 29,746.94 | 29,591.37 | 29,810.00 | 29,200.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Max pain strike | 29,300.00 |
| Put/Call ratio · today's volume | 0.94 |
| Put/Call ratio · open interest | 1.41 |
| 0DTE gamma flip | 29,360.01 |
| 0DTE contracts in chain | 764 |
| Total contracts read | 3,300 |
Price 29,443.43 is above the gamma flip 29,209.53 by 0.80%. Positioning is positive: as price rises dealers sell hedges, and as it falls they buy — so their hedging acts as a brake pulling price toward the middle. This explains sessions that look quiet despite news that would justify a wider move. والسعرُ في منتصف المسافة بين الجدارين (29,200.00 و29,725.00)، أبعدُ نقطةٍ عن either, and the position that calls for the least flow-driving hedging.
The largest call cluster sits at 29,725.00 (0.96% from price) and the largest put cluster at 29,200.00 (-0.83% from price). They are 1.80% apart — a normal range: NDX tends to stay inside it while positioning holds, because hedging at each wall resists a break through it.
صافي تعرّض الغاما لـNDX يبلغ 904.05 مليون، حجمٌ معتبَرٌ يُبقي للتحوّط أثراً clearly present without governing the move on its own. A 1% move calls for about 30,705 shares of hedging. So read the levels below alongside volume, not in isolation from it.
and this reading is built on 3,300 contracts in the chain.
Over the last 27 days of tracking (298 archived snapshots), NDX stayed above the gamma flip in 58% of readings، وتنقّلت نقطةُ الانقلاب نفسُها بين 29,102.70 و29,777.12، أي بنطاق 2.32٪، وهو ما يعني أنّ the level is relatively stable and reads as a firmer reference than a symbol whose level swings، and net exposure today is below the period average (949.56 مليون).
