Reading the market regime before prices move

Skip to content
Last close 00:43 UTC
QQQ 743.57 -0.34%
IWM 276.71 -0.43%
RSP 213.30 +0.06%
VIX 15.28 +0.46%
SVIX 30.11 +0.14%
VXX 16.68 -0.06%
SMH 588.12 -0.49%
SOXX 543.90 -0.18%
XLF 54.82 -0.42%
XLE 67.17 +1.76%
GLD 381.67 -0.13%
Brent 125.44 -0.06%
WTI 96.24 +0.11%
Dollar index 121.60 +0.13%
US2Y 4.79% −1 basis point
US5Y 5.00% −2 basis points
US10Y 5.21% −3 basis points
US20Y 5.60% −5 basis points
US30Y 5.56% −4 basis points
Bitcoin 83,220.02 +0.06%
After hours
CHART PATTERN · Reversal patterns

Bump-and-run reversal

Bump-and-Run Reversal
Slope: down Timeframe: months

Terms on this page: Trendline (Trendline) · Throwback · Pullback (Throwback · Pullback) · Structural Invalidation (Structural Invalidation)

Reversal after a surge: a chart with a worked exampleWorked example of a Bump-and-Run Reversal over 80 sessions. Trigger at the close of session 69 near $67.8. Target $61.0. Invalidation $76.4.SignalTargetInvalidationSurgeStart of the surgeEntry line76.4$61.0$Volume04080 sessions
Reversal after a surge: a chart with a worked exampleWorked example of a Bump-and-Run Reversal over 80 sessions. Trigger at the close of session 69 near $67.8. Target $61.0. Invalidation $76.4.SignalTargetInvalidationSurgeStart of the surgeEntry line76.4$61.0$70$80$Volume04080 sessions
A worked example that explains the rule, not a stock price. The circle marks the first close beyond the level. The blue line is the target. The orange line is the invalidation. Prices are in the right-hand column, and sessions sit under the volume bar. Hollow green candles closed above their open, and filled red candles closed below it.

Numbers in the example chart

From the same calculation that draws the shape and writes the "Measuring the target" section below.
Trigger level $67.8 · at the close of session 69
Target 61.0$
Invalidation 76.4$
Chart span 80 sessions

What it is

A calm rise along a trendline of moderate slope called the entry line, then a sharp acceleration that pulls price away from the line, which is the surge, then a drop that returns to the line and breaks it.

The pattern describes speculation that outran its foundation: the sharp rise wasn't built by new demand but by a race for the same price, so price returns to where the race began. It is read in three consecutive parts: an entry that builds the line, a thrust that moves away from it, then a return that breaks it, and each part has a condition measured on the chart.

When the trigger starts and when it fails

Signal

A close below the original entry line after the lower high.

Invalidation · Structural Invalidation

A close back above the entry line and above the last lower high.

Reading it stage by stage

  1. Entry A steady rise at a moderate slope · the line touches a series of lows.
  2. Surge Acceleration doubles the slope and volume rises every session · this is where the speculative peak forms.
  3. Pullback A lower high, and price heads back toward the entry line.
  4. Breakdown A close below the original entry line. A retest from below is common before the drop toward the start of the surge.

Recognition rules

  • The entry's trendline (Trendline) runs through successive lows over at least twenty sessions.
  • The thrust is at least one and a half times steeper than the entry.
  • The thrust peak rises above the line at least twice as high as the entry's highest rise above it.
  • A lower high after the thrust warns that the acceleration is over.
  • Volume rises with the acceleration and peaks near the top of the thrust, then fades during the retreat.
  • Confirmation is a close below the original entry line, not below a new line drawn on the thrust's lows.

Measuring the target

The target is the price where the thrust began, where price left the entry line: in the example the line breaks near $67.8 so the target is $61.0, and invalidation is a close back above the line and above the last lower high at $76.4.

Where it fools you

  • Drawing the entry line on the thrust's own lows makes it steep so it breaks early, and selling during the acceleration before the original line breaks faces a rise that may accelerate further.
  • After the break, price often returns to test the line from below, the return to the broken line (Throwback), before continuing down.
  • Judging the two conditions by eye is misleading: the thrust's slope and its height above the line are measured in numbers from the chart itself, and an entry shorter than twenty sessions doesn't give a line you can rely on.

Where to find it on the platform

  • Technical terminal · drawing tools Members only
    Open the daily timeframe for any symbol and draw the pattern yourself. Your drawing is saved per symbol in your browser, and the terminal does not name or detect the pattern.
    • ╱ Trendline Entry line
    • ⇕ Measure Target equals pattern height
We do not detect chart patterns with a numeric rule: telling them apart takes judgment on the chart. Candlestick patterns with a numeric rule are detected daily by the candlestick pattern scanner.