Reading the market regime before prices move
Reading the market regime before prices move
Every number here is computed from the traded ISRG options chain. The call wall is where dealer hedging accumulates above spot and caps upside, the put wall is its mirror below, and the gamma flip is the level where hedging stops damping moves and starts amplifying them.
| Strike | Calls | Puts | Today's volume | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 352.50 | 3 | 18 | 9 | Put |
| 355.00 | 145 | 396 | 66 | Put |
| 357.50 | 0 | 26 | 62 | Put |
| 360.00 | 220 | 961 | 101 | Put |
| 362.50 | 3 | 46 | 35 | Put |
| 365.00 | 386 | 733 | 235 | Put |
| 367.50 | 4 | 92 | 54 | Put |
| 370.00 | 513 | 1,311 | 147 | Put |
| 372.50 | 55 | 101 | 19 | Put |
| 375.00 | 687 | 589 | 86 | Call |
| 377.50 | 452 | 56 | 27 | Call |
| 380.00 | 687 | 1,151 | 93 | Put |
| Day | Price | Gamma flip | Call wall | Put wall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 390.10 | 379.87 | 400.00 | 350.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 399.32 | 381.52 | 400.00 | 350.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | 400.59 | 386.14 | 405.00 | 400.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Max pain strike | 377.50 |
| Put/Call ratio · today's volume | 1.75 |
| Put/Call ratio · open interest | 1.06 |
| 0DTE gamma flip | 371.67 |
| 0DTE contracts in chain | 160 |
| Total contracts read | 902 |
السعرُ 366.70 يقع تحت نقطةِ الانقلاب 378.93 بفارق 3.23٪، عمقٌ في المنطقة السالبة. Dealer hedging here sells into weakness and buys into strength, meaning it **amplifies** what happens instead of absorbing it. Returning to a braking regime requires a rally beyond 3.2%. Price is inside the range between 350.00 and 400.00, closer to Put wall of the two.
أكبرُ تجمّعٍ لعقود الشراء عند 400.00 (9.08% from price)، ولعقود البيع عند 350.00 (-4.55% from price)، والمسافةُ بينهما 14.29٪، a **wide** range. That does not imply a move is coming, only that the walls are far enough apart not to confine ISRG during the session, so flow leads rather than hedging.
صافي تعرّض الغاما لـISRG يبلغ −11.62 مليون، وهو حجمٌ محدود. Hedging for a 1% move is about 31,692 shares. In this range hedging stays secondary to the stock's own flow, so the levels below should not be asked to carry more than they can.
and this reading is built on 902 contracts in the chain.
Over the last 27 days of tracking (293 archived snapshots), ISRG stayed above the gamma flip in 45% of readings، وتنقّلت نقطةُ الانقلاب نفسُها بين 370.51 و393.08، أي بنطاق 6.09٪، وهو ما يعني أنّ the level moves with the market and does not serve as a fixed reference across days، and net exposure today is above the period average (−1.95 مليون).
